According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, based on the set of sea temperature monitoring data along the equatorial region in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, the El Nino phenomenon has officially appeared. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also confirmed that El Nino officially appeared from June 8, when the measured sea temperature was 0.5 degrees higher than the climate average, threshold to establish an El Nino state.
According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the El Nino phenomenon will continue to develop from June until the end of 2023 and maintain until 2024 with a probability of about 80-90%.
Notably, regarding the impact of El Nino on Viet Nam's weather and climate, the meteorological agency noted that El Nino often causes a rainfall deficit in most of the country with a prevalence of 25 to 50%, most notably in the North Central region.
It is forecasted that El Nino will gradually increase in intensity in the winter months of 2023-2024, with a high risk of local or large-scale drought in places with high water demand for production and living in the dry season months of 2023. It is necessary to watch out for little rain, leading to drought, saltwater intrusion and water shortage in the first months of 2024 nationwide.
In addition, according to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, based on some climate statistics, in the period under the impact of El Nino in Viet Nam, there are some notable fluctuations such as the average monthly had 0.42 attacks, about 28% less than the multi-year average.
Under conditions of influence of El Nino phenomenon, especially strong El Nino waves can cause many records of absolute highest temperature in many places.